Bitcoin ETFs Cool Down: Cash Flows Slow, Investors Take Profits, Market Enters Challenging Phase
Signs of a slowdown in Bitcoin spot ETF cash flows in the US are prompting analysts to warn that Bitcoin could enter a correction phase after a series of strong price increases.
According to the latest data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, Bitcoin ETFs – which have been at the forefront of the market’s recent rally – are seeing a marked decline in investment inflows. This could be the first sign that Bitcoin’s recovery wave is facing a real test.
Weakening Institutional Inflows: Only $58 Million/Day
After a peak of more than $389 million in daily ETF inflows in late April, this figure is now down to around $58 million/day – a sharp decline that reflects a slowdown in demand from institutional investors.
According to Glassnode, the decline in ETF participation could be an early indicator of waning investor confidence, even as Bitcoin hovers around $103,000.
Rather than being driven by derivatives such as futures or options, Bitcoin’s recent rally has been driven largely by real buying in the spot market and ETFs, suggesting that “real” money is playing a leading role.
Increased profit-taking from short-term investors
Another factor influencing the current trend is the wave of profit-taking from short-term investors – those who bought Bitcoin in the past five months.
According to Glassnode, the profits made by this group have exceeded 3 standard deviations from the 90-day average, a phenomenon often seen during hot bull runs when investors decide to realize profits.
However, in previous strong growth cycles, this index could exceed 5 standard deviations, suggesting that the current selling pressure is not yet strong enough to stop the recovery if demand remains strong.
Derivatives lag: Less leverage, still positive sentiment
Meanwhile, the derivatives market is showing more “cautious” behavior than the spot market.
Open interest on perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts has dropped 10%, reflecting a recent short squeeze. At the same time, funding rates are currently neutral, with no signs of high leverage – an indicator that the market is still “healthy” and not overly speculative.
Notably, in the options market, positive sentiment is starting to appear more clearly. The 25-month Delta Skew has dropped to -6.1%, indicating that calls are overpriced for puts – a classic bullish signal.
Market Implications
The slowdown in ETF flows combined with increasing profit-taking pressure paints a cautious picture for Bitcoin in the short term.
While there are no clear signs of a downturn, the temporary withdrawal of institutional investors could leave the current rally lacking fresh support.
The market is likely to enter an accumulation phase before determining the next direction.
Conclusion:
Amid volatile macro factors and institutional flows, Bitcoin is entering a period of testing its recovery strength. Monitoring money flow indicators, profit-taking behavior, and movements in the derivatives market will play an important role in determining the next trend.